Why England can advance
I see the main case for England in the numbers and in the shape of the match. They average 2.0 goals, 1.8 xG, 18.7 shots and 13.0 chances created per game, and those are heavyweight figures. Even when they were not sparkling, they still topped the group with seven points and two clean sheets in three games. Kane already has three goals, Bellingham is influencing matches between the lines, and Saka gives England width and final-ball quality.
This matchup should allow Tuchel's midfield to take command. With Rice expected back, plus Anderson and Bellingham, England can overload central zones and pin Congo DR into a low block. If that happens, the game becomes one of repeated pressure, second balls, and crosses or cut-backs into Kane. Congo DR have conceded in every group match, and against this volume that is a dangerous trend. I also think England's tournament experience matters when the game becomes tense and ugly.
Why Congo DR can advance
Congo DR are not here by accident. They drew with Portugal, lost only 1-0 to Colombia, then showed character by coming from behind to beat Uzbekistan 3-1. That last result is huge psychologically. It gave them their first World Cup win and their first knockout qualification, so they arrive with freedom rather than fear.
I can also see a tactical route for them. They are comfortable without the ball, their possession average is only 38.5%, and Desabre has shown he can use a back five against stronger sides. Wissa has scored three of their four tournament goals, and that concentration is risky over a long sample, but in a one-off knockout tie it can be enough. England's right-back situation is unstable because Reece James is out, Livramento has left camp, and Spence may have to handle serious pressure. If Congo DR can target that channel with Wissa, Bakambu and runners from wide areas, they can make England uncomfortable.
What factors can change the balance of power
The first factor is England's tempo. If they move the ball too slowly, this becomes the kind of game underdogs love. The second is availability. Rice's return helps England, but the defensive absences and Quansah's doubt reduce flexibility. An early goal changes everything. If England score first, the match could open into the pattern the market expects. If Congo DR score first, England may start forcing the play and exposing transitions.
Substitutions also matter. England have more ways to alter the attacking picture late on. Congo DR have less depth, but if they keep it level deep into the second half, their emotional energy rises and the pressure swings onto the favourite.
Final prediction and odds
The bookmakers make England a clear favourite at 1.27, with the draw at 5.40 and Congo DR at 11.00. Over 2.5 goals is 1.85, under 2.5 is 1.89, and both teams to score, no, is 1.47. My reading is close to the market on the 1X2. I would price regular-time chances at about 74% for England, 18% for the draw, and 8% for Congo DR.
My main pick is England to win at 1.27. For a stronger betting angle, I prefer both teams to score, no, at 1.47, because Congo DR's attack is heavily tied to Wissa and England have already posted two clean sheets. The score I like most is 2-0. If it somehow finishes level after 90 minutes, I would still back England to advance in extra time because of midfield control and superior bench options. My final call is England to go through.